Futures Wheel

Tool Overview

The Futures Wheel is a brainstorming and analysis tool invented by futurist Jerome Glenn in 1971. It helps us systematically think through the direct and indirect impacts that a change or trend might bring.

"The future is created by our choices. The Futures Wheel helps us see the consequences of those choices before we make them." — Jerome Glenn

How to Use

Step 1: Define the Core Change

Write the change, trend, or event you want to explore in the center circle. Be specific—vague inputs produce vague outputs.

Step 2: First-Order Impacts

Around the center, identify the direct, immediate consequences of this change. Ask: "What happens first?"

Step 3: Cascading Impacts

For each first-order impact, continue thinking about what second-order effects they might generate, and so on outward.

            [2nd]     [2nd]
               \     /
          [2nd]─[1st]─[2nd]
                 │
    [2nd]─[1st]─CENTER─[1st]─[2nd]
                 │
          [2nd]─[1st]─[2nd]
               /     \
            [2nd]     [2nd]

Step 4: Analysis & Prioritization

Review the entire map and identify:

• Most likely pathways
• Impacts requiring the most attention
• Potential intervention points
• Unexpected connections between branches

Application Scenarios

Domain	Example Central Change
Technology	Widespread AR glasses adoption
Policy	Universal basic income implementation
Business	Shift to 4-day work week
Personal	Career change decision

Workshop Format

For group sessions, we recommend:

1. Individual brainstorming (10 min): Each participant creates their own wheel
2. Pair sharing (10 min): Compare and discuss differences
3. Group synthesis (20 min): Build a collective wheel on a large surface
4. Prioritization (15 min): Vote on most significant impacts

Tips for Effective Use

• Encourage multi-perspective thinking (social, economic, environmental, political)
• Embrace uncertainty—explore multiple possibilities
• Use color coding for different impact types
• Team collaboration yields richer results
• Combine with scenario planning for deeper analysis

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Further Reading

• Glenn, Jerome C. "The Futures Wheel"
• Slaughter, Richard. "Futures Studies: Theories and Methods"
• Bishop, Peter & Hines, Andy. "Teaching about the Future"